Howdy market watchers. The place the wind comes sweeping down the Plains. That’s how the week ended and never simply in Oklahoma, however throughout a lot of the U.S. winter wheat belt. With consecutive rain and snowstorms in current months, producers are getting anxious to get again into the fields to topdress wheat acres, and the wind could assist quicken the tempo forward of returned precipitation possibilities in the course of subsequent week.
Markets will likely be closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, however reopen for the in a single day session beginning at 7 p.m. There have been loads of headlines this week from the first-ever second impeachment of a U.S. president, lackluster jobs numbers and calls from the president-elect for an almost $2 trillion stimulus to come back.
Grain markets continued to be excited this week from anticipation for and the results of USDA month-to-month stories that have been one for the report books. This included a report drop in November to December corn manufacturing, report shortfall in Dec. 1 U.S. corn shares versus commerce expectations and report U.S. corn feeding within the first quarter. In actual fact, the commerce missed pre-report corn inventory guesses greater than ever in historical past. Wheat had extra assist from information of Russia’s proposals to double to 50 euro per tonne beginning March 1 already meant export taxes of 25 euro per tonne beginning Feb. 15 on wheat to curb home inflation and prolong such taxes by the following advertising 12 months beginning on July 1. Egypt cancelled its wheat tender because of the surge in costs. China shopping for late week additionally supported wheat markets regardless of some revenue taking Friday in corn and soybeans as extra rains have been seen over the weekend in South America.
Tuesday’s USDA stories included the month-to-month WASDE and Crop Manufacturing stories in addition to the Winter Wheat Seedings numbers. Final 12 months’s U.S. corn yields have been decreased 3.8 bushels per acre to 172.0 bpa, whereas soybeans have been decreased 0.5 bushels per acre to 50.2 bpa. Whereas South American climate will proceed to be watched, the extent of the corn and soybean rally largely will likely be decided by the extent to which the U.S. can regain complete planted acres as seen between 2012 and 2018 above 324 million and round 320 million acres, respectively, versus simply 303 million and 310 million up to now two years. Any climate delays or risk of stop planting this spring ought to have corn customers, together with cattle feeders, making ready now. With international corn shares at 8-year lows and demand growing in China on the rebuilding of its hog herd, there’s restricted room for climate danger on the present value ranges. The Brazil safrinha corn crop that will likely be planted after soybeans additionally will likely be watched carefully as a serious provide aspect issue.
USDA elevated China corn import numbers by 1.0 million tonnes to 17.5 million. That very same morning, China elevated their estimated corn imports to 10.0 million tonnes from 7.0 million tonnes whereas already importing 11.7 million tonnes from the U.S. that’s probably 14.0 million tonnes given shipments reported to “unknown” locations. Regardless of the rise, we imagine China will import extra within the vary of 25-30 million, so look ahead to this “new” demand issue to develop and additional tighten the worldwide steadiness sheet. Corn costs in China are at present round $11 per bushel.
NOPA’s month-to-month crush numbers for December reported Friday have been under commerce expectations, however nonetheless a report. China soybean demand for 2020 got here in simply above 100 million tonnes versus 88.6 million the 12 months earlier than. With tight provides in Brazil forward of harvest, watch to what extent China will shift shopping for to South America round mid-February or proceed to purchase U.S. origin to cowl wants. Entrance-month March soybeans settled the week simply above $14.16 after highs for the week close to $14.37. Friday was an inside day on the charts, so look ahead to a breakout on Tuesday. Harvest contract months proceed to be behind in corn, beans and cotton.
November new crop futures closed the week just under $12.00. March corn settled Friday at $5.31½, whereas December new crop futures completed the week at $4.60. As we get into planting vary, look ahead to these spreads to slim. Planted acres for winter wheat have been reported one-half million acres above commerce guesses at 1.5 million acres above final 12 months’s historic lows. We do count on spring wheat acres to in the end are available in decrease in competitors with soybeans. Russia wheat manufacturing was raised 1.3 million tonnes by USDA regardless of dryness within the southern one-third of the belt, held the identical in Ukraine, Canada, Australia and the EU with ½ million tonne discount in Argentina and a 1.7 million tonne discount in China. Elevated corn futures and foundation ranges are more likely to lead to larger wheat feed utilization. With Washington to be dominated by the left and a weak U.S. greenback, the macro atmosphere is supportive of the commodity advanced. Tight steadiness sheet fundamentals have created a state of affairs the place the sudden ought to be anticipated. Subsequently, producers who’ve ahead contracted new crop or those who have hedged ought to defend the upside. For these involved about elevated rates of interest down the street, shorting the Eurodollar futures is the strategy. Name me for methods to hedge these low rates of interest.
The cattle market traded either side this week promoting off on larger corn costs earlier than discovering assist Friday. Nonetheless, be cautious and watch that $132.00 degree on March feeder futures. If we break that degree, be careful under. March feeders closed the week at $135.825. Corn’s motion this subsequent week may see the cattle advanced soften once more as headlines this subsequent week main as much as the inauguration are anticipated to be disruptive which will see the fairness market and shopper sentiments soften. Should you’re feeding corn, defend the upside with name choices or lengthy futures. This isn’t an atmosphere to be uncovered.
Should you’re able to discover the markets, give me a name at (580) 232-2272 or cease by my workplace to get your account arrange and focus on methods to commerce these markets. Self-trading accounts are additionally obtainable. It’s by no means too late to start out and there’s no operation too small to get a danger administration and advertising plan in place. Keep in mind, I’m on-site on the Enid Livestock Market on Thursday, sale day. Wishing everybody a profitable buying and selling week.
Sidwell is a Sequence 3 licensed commodity futures dealer and principal of Sidwell Methods. He could be reached at (580) 232-2272 or at email@example.com. Futures and choices buying and selling entails the danger of loss and is probably not appropriate for all buyers. Assessment full disclaimer at http://www.sidwellstrategies.com/disclaimer.